Links 01.2022 // Predictions
On a Personal Note
С Новым Годом! Happy New Year!
I hope you had a good start to 2022. I certainly had...although I spent most of 31/12 at Istanbul Airport (my second home after all). But in the end, all went well and I could start the new year in Minsk with tons of Olivier salad. Can't get much better than that.
Instead of doing a review of 2021 (as initially planned), I decided to change things a bit and went with a more forward-looking version for this week's edition. Plus, this might be more fun to review at the end of the year. Let's see how wrong I got things (again!).
The best review of my social media activity in 2021 is in any case already captured in this meme:
Predictions 2022
Here are some of my predictions for next year. And while I might have some more concrete hot takes (e.g. Britney topping the charts in 2022!), I reduced it to those that are relevant for those subscribed to this newsletter. This means that these predications reflect broader economic, political, and financial trends. I tried to make them as measurable as possible, so we can actually assess the results by the end of 2022. Here we go:
New Inflation Heights: After years of insane asset price inflation (just look at the housing and stock markets), it seems that the exuberant money supply will now gradually affect consumer prices—and will thus become one of the major political topics of 2022. Just for context: Nearly 80% of US dollars that circulate today have been printed in the last two years. To make this a proper prediction, I would say that we reach double-digit inflation in the United States and 7-8% in Europe. I also predict that central banks won't be able to significantly raise interest rates to counter this trend. And the main reason for this is the insane level of government debt. In the 1970s when the FED raised rates, the debt to GDP ratio was around 40, today it is at 133%! WTF. Living in Turkey gave me a flavor of what might be on the horizon. (The good news: stonks will continue to go up!)
Narrative Change around Vaccines: After the initial euphoria about vaccines, I predict that we will see a narrative change in the media about big pharma and the COVID policies. In Germany, we are already seeing a change in tone from some of the major media outlets. As more data about the mismanagement of this pandemic will surface and as the efficacy rates of the vaccines will continue to disappoint (I am not saying this to discredit vaccines; but to criticize the overpromising of pharma companies and politicians), the narrative will change and become more critical. This expected backlash from a certain "rally around the flag"-tendency will be interesting to observe (some reasonable voices on the left seem to be waking up as well). If handled well, this could alleviate some of the polarization pressures that we are currently observing. In the end, I predict that the vaccine issue will boil down to a matter of personal choice instead of a debate about the common good (similar to something that is outlined here). I know that this is a bold prediction as vaccine mandates are looming in Germany, but a liberal can hope.
Bitcoin 100k: Usually a Bitcoin bull market ends with a blow-off top and retail mania; however, we seemed to have entered a Bitcoin supercycle that is unlike the past bull runs. Fueled by the current macroeconomic climate (see above) and the increasing institutional adoption, I would say that 2022 will bring a new Bitcoin ATH. And to make it a bit spicier: At least three big companies (Meta?) will put Bitcoin on their balance sheet and at least one more country will make Bitcoin legal tender.
FDP Drop: Well, let's mix in some German politics. The FDP now entered into a coalition government with the social democrats and the greens. This isn't necessarily bad...although I am not a big fan of Olaf Scholz. But leaving that aside, the FDP will probably (as they do!) underdeliver in their key areas, especially civil liberties, state finances, and tax reliefs. I have seen this too many times and the signs are again not promising. So, here is my prediction: FDP will dip to 7% in the polls.
Focus Areas 2022
During the last year, I focused a lot on Bitcoin, finance, and the philosophical underpinnings of right-wing ideologies (for a lack of a better word). This included "fun" (sic!) reads, such as Schmitt, Evola, Spengler, etc. as I am still on my way to building the ultimate "Anti-liberal Syllabus." Now for this year, I want to dive into the following categories:
Value Pluralism: Over the years, the works of Isaiah Berlin and John Grey grew more and more one me. And as I tend to become more and more influenced by public reason liberalism, I think it is a good time to explore the philosophical roots and debates around value pluralism and non-perfectionism a bit more.
Foucault & Oakeshott: While these two thinkers are completely different from each other, they both share one common feature: I haven't read enough from them. Let's change that this year.
Austrian Economics: I did my fair share of reading in Austrian Economics over the years, especially Hayek and Mises; however, to become more well-rounded on the topic, I want to dive deeper into the contemporary debates as well as thinkers, such as Don Lavoie. If somebody has a good reading list, please send it over.
Russian Classics: I still haven't read "The Brothers Karamazov" and "Anna Karenina". Shame on me. They are on my bookshelf now, so let's see whether I can make this monumental project happen.
Goals 2022
As you know, I am not a fan of "New Year's Resolutions". But neoliberalism obviously doesn't work without some proper SMART goals! In other words, the cultural pressures of our Gegenwart force me to put out some things that I want to achieve in 2022 #personalgrowth:
35+ Books: 2021 has been one of the worst reading years for me. I only managed to get through 23 books, which is basically half of my usual output. And of course, a book count might be misleading and not always the best measure of how much reading one gets done; but in this case, it is really capturing the truth. I really spent less time with my favorite medium. I will also create a section in the newsletter, where I regularly update you on the books that I am reading. This might make me more accountable!
40 Newsletters: I managed to churn out 37 editions of this newsletter in 2021. However, in the second half of the year, the frequency was not up to my usual standards. So, let's return strong in 2022.
21k run: Last year has not been good in terms of my fitness regime. At the beginning of the pandemic, I severely injured my knee and was not able to treat it properly. This meant that I was basically being unable to run or do physical exercise for almost a year. Before writing this newsletter, I just went out for a 5k run—which felt like a good first step. In 2022, I want to return to my peak running performance, which was a half-marathon distance. Wish me luck!
Master Guardian: Picking up the habit of playing "Counter-Strike: Global Offensive" has been one of the most fulfilling leisure activities of the last years. It allows me to escape my overthinking monkey brain for a while each day. For context: I have been a pretty good CS: Source player during my teenage years and then quit the game as it became too time-intense (daily training sessions, etc.). For next year, I want to upgrade my game rank by 2-3 categories, which would put me into the TOP20% of the game. That sounds reasonable. (Add me on Steam if you are up for some matchmaking from time to time)
All best,
Sven