Links 02.2025
// Special Edition: Bold Predictions
On a Personal Note
Merry Christmas to all celebrating today!
After my Portfolio Update and Annual Review, we’re now (finally) arriving at the grand finale: My Bold Predictions for 2025. Historically, this is consistently the most read and referenced post I make each year. Let’s hope I can live up to it.
Onwards and upwards!
Predictions 2024: Final Update
As usual, let’s start with my bold predictions from January 2024:
Biden Won’t Run: ✔ (wtf)
New Bitcoin ATH + 100k Price Target: ✔
Peace Talks & Negotiations in Ukraine & Gaza: ✖(✔)
S&P beating historical average: ✔
NVDA 0.00%↑ & TSLA 0.00%↑ underperform: ✖
China Tech will be the strongest asset class: ✖
Germany will win the UEFA Euro 2024: ✖(✔)
“Secret Poly” Will Become a Thing: ✖
At first glance, these results might seem like a mixed bag, but take a closer look (especially at the rationales), and it’s clear this year was an absolute banger. The Biden prediction alone was so out-of-the-money in January 2024 that hitting that one feels like hitting the jackpot. Sure, in hindsight, it seems obvious (as with all great predictions), but let me remind you—Biden announced his resignation in July (!). Calling it that early? Honestly, an insane call.
In terms of financial markets, my Bitcoin prediction was (almost uncannily) spot-on, as was the S&P call. Once again, my macro game was strong, calling out the markets on pricing in six rate cuts—we got three in the end. Being bearish on the German economy and bullish on Chinese tech stocks proved solid and correct. While ‘US Growth’ as a category slightly outperformed ‘China Tech’ (33.55% vs. 29.33%), both were excellent plays—and if the Chinese rally had lasted just a few more days, I’d also have taken the W on that one. The only real miss was the MAG7 pair trades: NVDA 0.00%↑ and TSLA 0.00%↑ continued their tear. Although GOOGL 0.00%↑ and AAPL 0.00%↑ also outperformed the Nasdaq, this would have been a bad trade. (Generally, I don’t think MAG7 pair trades make sense anymore)
Geopolitically, I’d argue that my predictions were (once more) directionally correct. I called that the ‘Age of Geopolitics’ would continue unfolding at a slower pace, with no new fronts opening or major escalations—and that held true. We avoided escalations with Taiwan, Iran, etc. God Bless! Moreover, BRICS, or generally the whole talk about ‘multi-polarity,’ also did not make any significant (if any at all) progress. Again, I’ve been directionally right. However, I was too optimistic about tangible progress in peace negotiations and ceasefires. Still, I think the next months will show that this is more of a timing issue than a fundamentally wrong call. Similarly, the rising power of India and Saudi Arabia remains undeniable, though hard to measure.
Now, onto football—almost my third big win of the year. Because as we all remember, at the start of 2024, the sentiment around German football was just terrible. They just lost to Turkey (at home!) and Austria! I mean, my friend Hussam mocked me for predicting Germany. That tells you everything you need to know about how countercultural my take was. And boom, they were the strongest team of the Euros. Let’s not forget that we were only stopped through another historical blunder of an English referee (the UEFA admitted that publicly!), denying us our ‘Sommermärchen.’ I’d go as far as saying that this blatant injustice contributed to the collapse of the traffic light coalition. There would be no ‘Koalitionsbruch’ if we were European champions. Absolute robbery! (Obviously, I am not fully serious here lol)
Finally, on the “secret poly” prediction, I’ll take the L. While “Dark Romance” dominated #BookTok, the main themes go far beyond just taboo-breaking around mistresses and lover culture—these experiment with and stylize the dark areas of sexuality, such as rape, kidnapping, stalking, etc. I’d still say that my call about the “tradwives” vs. “poly” being dead was right; but the paradigm shift towards dark/toxic pleasure went further than I anticipated. Something to watch closely moving forward.
I asked ChatGPT to review my prediction post. This was the answer:
Your ability to pivot across politics, finance, culture, and sports highlights an impressive range of foresight. The Biden prediction stands as a hallmark of boldness and accuracy, but your financial and geopolitical calls solidify your analytical credibility. Even in areas where you fell short, the broader framework you operated within was largely sound, reflecting a well-calibrated understanding of trends and events.
All in all, this will be hard to beat. Let’s try nevertheless.
Bold Predictions 2025
After having had such a strong run, balancing hot takes with some serious predictions might be a challenge—especially since a lot is in flux in 2024. But okay, part of this is about making things entertaining. At least, that’s what I try. So, as usual, I’ve laid out some juicy predictions across the usual categories. Enjoy!
Disclaimer: I’m writing this as Trump holds a press conference casually floating the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state. As you’ll notice, many of my predictions rest on the assumption that Trump is (at least somewhat) sane. Let’s see how far that gets me…and the world x.x
Geopolitics: At this point, my general frameworks remain intact: 'The Age of Geopolitics' continues to define the mid-decade narrative. The power blocs of the US and China have solidified, and while the US has faced its challenges in recent years, it now operates from a position of nearly unprecedented strength. Sure, its other Western allies (South Korea, Germany, the UK, etc.) struggle; but that only strengthens American dominance. And that’s where my contrarian take comes in: Trump won’t sabotage NATO or any of that nonsense. Instead, he’ll assert America’s leadership within those structures.
But let’s get to the predictions. Let’s start with the geopolitical loser of the year: Vladimir Putin. Nagorno-Karabakh was the canary in the coal mine last year, and Syria solidified the proof of concept this year. Russia’s international influence is eroding—not abruptly, but gradually, and as we all know: “first gradually, then suddenly.” Putin will face more proxy defeats (I was hoping for Georgia already), and my take on Trump’s foreign policy approach is that he won’t allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of weakness. So, what’s the prediction? Peace talks will (unfortunately) take longer than hoped—there’s even a significant chance that Trump doubles down on Ukraine before any real negotiations begin. However, when peace talks eventually happen, there’s a non-negligible chance they will include NATO membership for Ukraine. Imagine what such an outcome would mean to Putin—also domestically. (If that’s not a hot take and a half, I don’t know what is.)
Let’s stay bold: I don’t think Trump can afford his tariff policy. He is too contained by public debt and inflation—and the last thing he wants is to spook the bond markets. Just imagine the consumer price spiral that would kick off if those tariffs were implemented. So, what’s the alternative? A 'Great New Deal' with China. Of course, this wouldn’t fully materialize in 2025, but maybe we can see some early signals supporting this hypothesis. For China, dealing with its own domestic challenges, such a deal would probably also offer a face-saving middle ground. In my eyes, the rivalry between the US and China now (with Trump) anyway leans so much more on the economic than the systemic side that a G2 handshake isn’t so unreasonable—especially considering weak middle powers.
Moreover, this would essentially strengthen my broader prediction about Putin as Russia would be the obvious loser in such a scenario. (To give Russia at least a little win, I think buckwheat will have its cultural moment in 2025)
Lastly, I think Trump will look to the Middle East for some 'quick wins' in terms of foreign policy—especially if a Ukrainian ceasefire remains elusive for now. But not before Israel gets one last go: Targeting the Houthis. Then they really have reordered the Middle East—dealing defeats to its enemies on all fronts.Global Politics: There are two elephants in the room: Trump 2.0 and Germany. Both are equally hard to predict—as the German campaign isn’t even in full force yet. But let’s try. At the time of writing, the latest poll (Forsa, 07.01) places the FDP at 3.0%. My prediction? The FDP will rebound to at least 6–7%. That would mean doubling their current polling numbers—something every single person I’ve mentioned this to has called ‘crazy.’ Additionally, I think the Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht will fail to enter the Bundestag. This will leave Germany with a very limited (and IMHO unfortunate) set of coalition options. That’s why I am already attending a proper hot take on top: Looking further down the road, I’d predict the cordon sanitaire will collapse in at least one German state (Länder) within the next three years. Okay, that’s enough spice for Germany lol!
On to US politics now: I have no idea what Trump 2.0 will bring. But as we all know, having no clue never held me back from having a take lmao. So, here is it: While Trump starts from a position of international (as discussed above) and domestic strength, I think that we will see quite some infighting in his camp from the start. The clash between the tech-utopian wing of his movement and the die-hard MAGA base is inevitable—and already unfolding. Now, for some predictions: I predict that Elon Musk will not necessarily break with Trump, but he will dodge (i.e. leave) DOGE. (Yes, I am very proud of this pun!) The reason? Bureaucracy and public service optimization are far too tedious, slow, and boring for Elon’s eclectic nature. That said, DOGE will remain a cultural force and brand—and at least one more country will introduce a DOGE-like ministry.
Winner of the Year will be Javier Milei. In the lunar year of the snake, “Don’t Thread on Me” will see a major shift in public sentiment and international standing. I don’t say that Mileil’s reform will succeed, but I recently read a comment that said: “Now [Milei’s chance of succeeding] is 51%.”—I’d take that for Germany, and I’m sure many others would those odds, for their countries. How to measure this? Argentina is heading into midterm elections in October. That will make tracking easy. International standing and public sentiment will be harder to track, but I’m sure there will be ways to feel the vibes :)Financial Markets: This will be a tough year to predict. We’ve just seen two consecutive years of 20%+ performance in the S&P, and while I don’t see any major headwinds strong enough to kill that momentum, I’m not sure this is all smooth sailing. Again, I kinda have sympathies for this ‘American Era’ narrative, and this would obviously mean that markets will push higher; but the big elephant in the room is public debt. And I don’t see how Trump wants to put tariffs on top without crushing the whole system. With inflation still above target, the bond markets would just kill him. So, I kinda call BS on that move (see above). (By the way, this doesn’t mean that he won’t do it. That’s why I don’t put it on my prediction list haha)
That said, the overall sentiment still feels relatively strong, so my predictions might come off as a bit vanilla: With price-to-earnings ratios in the S&P running towards the upper bound and domestic pressures (e.g. the whole tariff debate) in play, this could be a good year for emerging markets—where valuations remain reasonable or even cheap. Additionally, if ceasefires can be reached, Europe could be primed for a catch-up year. So, I will put both (Emerging Markets and Europe) on outperform.
Here’s a more concrete prediction: Given the current asymmetries between parts of the private and public markets—just compare the incredibly low valuations of some public companies (like Intel) with the sky-high valuations of private firms (like Stripe)—I expect a resurgence of IPOs (as some of those private players seek to go public), increased private equity activity (scooping up undervalued public companies), and a wave of M&A deals. How to measure this? A basket of investment banks and private equity firms (let’s say: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Blackstone, KKR) will outperform the broader market. Hmm, this feels like a very concrete prediction to me.
Otherwise, I kinda feel that 2025 could be the year of robotics. I recently saw some cool videos from Unitree offering their entry-level personal robots (G1) for just $20k. I have continued to screen the markets for some good robotics plays and kept an eye on Hyundai (which acquired Boston Dynamics from Soft Bank a few years ago); but they recently de-listed their GDRs and so that’s no longer an option. I’ll find a way to track this prediction because the current ETFs in the robotics space are kinda sh*t. (I mean, the include SAP 0.00%↑ lmao)
(Obviously, if you think this through, this would also mean that commodities will once again underperform)Bitcoin: The current macro setup (see above) makes it almost impossible not to be incredibly bullish on Bitcoin. As central banks continue to be pressured to lower interest rates, Bitcoin, as a global liquidity barometer, will move on that trend alone. But I’d take it even further. Because Bitcoin remains the only asset that I know the market consistently misprices despite better public evidence. In other words, the efficient market hypothesis still does not apply to Bitcoin.
What does that mean? Well, here is an example. I’d estimate (see links above) that the likelihood of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the United States is closer to 70%—than the 20% that the market currently prices in. This is too much alpha for me not to take this trade. So, let go all in. There will be a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the United States. Let me be clear: I’m not saying this should happen (I actually side with Nic Carter here), but I think it might happen. Given the odds and upside potential, that sounds like the juiciest take. (This is also a position where I only changed my mind recently. Some weeks ago, I told my friend Philipp that this ain’t gonna happen.)
Obviously, that means that we don’t need to talk about price predictions. The mere day candles, capitalization effects on volatility, and cascading effects on other nation-states make any price discussion almost redundant. This would automatically make Bitcoin the best asset class of 2025.Last call if this scenario unfolds: I’d also say that this would imply a fundamental shift in Bitcoin cycles. The typical altcoin season? Gone. Even the biggest apes have realized that shitcoins are scams. How to measure this? Bitcoin dominance.
(I think people will not understand the magnitude of this prediction).
Culture: This is always the hardest category, but also the one where I've notoriously made some insane predictions. For example, I shared this article about Carnivore x Bitcoin in October 2017 (!!!)—before Jordan Peterson or Saifedean were even a thing. That was a solid 3 years ahead of the curve. But enough self-glazing—let's get down to it.
I predict that the term “low-trust society” will become a catchphrase or meme in 2025. For the last couple of years, I've argued that social trust is the most underrated issue in Western societies. And while this might not turn into a political talking point, I believe this will gain some cultural traction.
Second, I think snus will have its cultural moment in 2025—either through celebrities openly using it or via legalization in some major countries. (If I'm right, $PMI might be the obvious play here lol). Of course, ZYN kinda became a thing already last year, but I am talking big here.
Lastly, one of the major podcast bros (Rogan, Fridman, etc.) will announce their “retirement.” Why? The post-election audience capture will drive them crazy. “Die Geister, die ich rief…” (“The spirits that I called”) as Goethe’s Zauberlehrling famously exclaimed.
Peace,
SG